Forecast previously showed that former President Donald Trump would win in Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina.

Election prediction models are not like polls — and Silver's Trump odds are not all that different from others.

The former president fell below a 40 percent chance of winning the election in the latest update to FiveThirtyEight's ...

Similar models correctly predicted the 2020 presidential election and 2021 runoff elections for two Georgia senate seats.

After predicting the outcomes of multiple close elections, a leading data scientist has predicted a landslide victory for ...

Number of electoral votes and the probability of a Democratic or Republican win in each state. Outlined states are most likely to give the winner their 270th Electoral College vote. Use the table ...

When we launched the forecast in June, this was not an apparent issue; the model was generating estimates that were only slightly closer to our "fundamentals" indicators about the election ...

Also, Jonathan Alter previews tonight’s debate, Zephyr Teachout defends Kamala Harris’s price-gouging ban, and more in the ...

The Economist’s forecast model suggests that the state—with its 19 electoral-college votes, the most of any swing state—is ...