Dive into the weeds of our new Harris-Trump model. For 2024, 538 has built a new presidential election forecast model. This article explains how we did it: the ingredients that go into the ...

Ahead of the 2024 Presidential election, see how Kamala Harris and ... PROBABILITY OF WINNING This graph shows the probability model but for seven battleground states that will decide this ...

Elections analyst and FiveThirtyEight founder ... going into Labor Day weekend and the home stretch of the campaign. The model update suggests that Trump has a 52.4% chance of winning the ...

When we launched the forecast in June, this was not an apparent issue; the model was generating estimates that were only slightly closer to our "fundamentals" indicators about the election ...

Donald Trump’s campaign manager used a Semafor report on issues with ABC News’ 538 election model to take a shot at the entire prediction effort, labeling it “a suppression tool” and ...

Can the Democrats win? Or is Trump stronger than he appears? Welcome to the New Statesman’s election forecast for the 2024 US election. Our model will provide near daily projections of vote ...

The 77-year-old explained that he based his prediction on a historical index model he dubs the "Keys ... forecasting the results of US presidential elections since 1984 and claims to have ...